World Cup 2026 — Previous Predictions

How the model performed on completed matches · updated 2026-08-15 13:40
104
Matches played
74
Model favourite won
71%
Accuracy
Correct score coverage — picks per game
top 1
17%
top 2
25%
top 3
33%
top 4
45%
top 5
53%
Sun 19 Jul 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Spain 1–0actual result Argentina
0.99–0.87model xG
Spain 35%draw 35%Argentina 29%
Model favoured: Spain at 35%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-018.3% · 1/5.51-113.9% · 1/7.21-013.8% · 1/7.20-112.0% · 1/8.32-07.5% · 1/13.32-16.1% · 1/16.3
Sat 18 Jul 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
France 4–6actual result England
1.08–1.25model xG
France 31%draw 31%England 39%
Model favoured: England at 39%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.6% · 1/7.30-012.3% · 1/8.20-110.9% · 1/9.21-09.2% · 1/10.90-27.7% · 1/13.01-27.6% · 1/13.1
Wed 15 Jul 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
England 1–2actual result Argentina
0.94–1.23model xG
England 27%draw 32%Argentina 41%
Model favoured: Argentina at 41%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-014.2% · 1/7.11-113.7% · 1/7.30-112.5% · 1/8.01-09.5% · 1/10.50-28.2% · 1/12.21-27.4% · 1/13.5
Tue 14 Jul 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
France 0–2actual result Spain
0.77–1.30model xG
France 21%draw 32%Spain 47%
Model favoured: Spain at 47%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-015.1% · 1/6.60-115.0% · 1/6.71-113.2% · 1/7.60-210.5% · 1/9.51-08.4% · 1/11.81-27.5% · 1/13.4
Sun 12 Jul 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Argentina 3–1actual result Switzerland
1.59–0.63model xG
Argentina 58%draw 28%Switzerland 14%
Model favoured: Argentina at 58%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.9% · 1/6.30-013.4% · 1/7.52-013.0% · 1/7.71-111.5% · 1/8.72-17.9% · 1/12.63-06.9% · 1/14.5
Sat 11 Jul 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
Norway 1–2actual result England
1.14–1.52model xG
Norway 28%draw 28%England 45%
Model favoured: England at 45%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.7% · 1/7.90-19.7% · 1/10.30-09.3% · 1/10.71-28.4% · 1/11.90-28.0% · 1/12.51-06.9% · 1/14.5
Fri 10 Jul 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Spain 2–1actual result Belgium
1.71–0.58model xG
Spain 62%draw 26%Belgium 12%
Model favoured: Spain at 62%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-016.1% · 1/6.22-014.0% · 1/7.20-012.7% · 1/7.91-110.7% · 1/9.33-08.0% · 1/12.52-17.9% · 1/12.7
Thu 09 Jul 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
France 2–0actual result Morocco
1.44–0.81model xG
France 50%draw 30%Morocco 20%
Model favoured: France at 50%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-013.9% · 1/7.20-013.2% · 1/7.61-112.8% · 1/7.82-010.6% · 1/9.42-18.0% · 1/12.60-17.3% · 1/13.6
Tue 07 Jul 21:00 ✗ Upset
Switzerland 0–0actual result Colombia
0.95–1.30model xG
Switzerland 26%draw 31%Colombia 43%
Model favoured: Colombia at 43%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.5% · 1/7.40-013.4% · 1/7.50-112.3% · 1/8.11-08.9% · 1/11.20-28.6% · 1/11.71-27.6% · 1/13.1
Tue 07 Jul 17:00 ✓ Favourite won
Argentina 3–2actual result Egypt
2.04–0.42model xG
Argentina 73%draw 20%Egypt 6%
Model favoured: Argentina at 73%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-016.8% · 1/5.91-016.8% · 1/6.03-011.3% · 1/8.90-010.8% · 1/9.31-18.0% · 1/12.52-16.8% · 1/14.8
Tue 07 Jul 01:00 ✓ Favourite won
USA 1–4actual result Belgium
1.26–1.47model xG
USA 31%draw 28%Belgium 41%
Model favoured: Belgium at 41%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.7% · 1/7.90-08.9% · 1/11.20-18.7% · 1/11.51-27.9% · 1/12.60-27.1% · 1/14.01-07.1% · 1/14.1
Mon 06 Jul 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Portugal 0–1actual result Spain
0.68–1.61model xG
Portugal 15%draw 27%Spain 58%
Model favoured: Spain at 58%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-115.0% · 1/6.70-212.6% · 1/7.90-012.4% · 1/8.01-111.7% · 1/8.61-28.0% · 1/12.40-37.1% · 1/14.1
Mon 06 Jul 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Mexico 2–3actual result England
0.89–1.48model xG
Mexico 22%draw 29%England 49%
Model favoured: England at 49%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.8% · 1/7.80-112.6% · 1/7.90-011.8% · 1/8.50-210.1% · 1/9.91-28.1% · 1/12.41-07.2% · 1/13.9
Sun 05 Jul 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
Brazil 1–2actual result Norway
1.14–1.35model xG
Brazil 30%draw 29%Norway 40%
Model favoured: Norway at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.3% · 1/7.50-010.6% · 1/9.50-110.1% · 1/9.91-08.1% · 1/12.31-27.9% · 1/12.60-27.6% · 1/13.2
Sat 04 Jul 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
Paraguay 0–1actual result France
0.70–1.91model xG
Paraguay 13%draw 24%France 64%
Model favoured: France at 64%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-113.2% · 1/7.60-212.9% · 1/7.71-110.6% · 1/9.40-09.5% · 1/10.51-28.4% · 1/11.90-38.3% · 1/12.0
Sat 04 Jul 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Canada 0–3actual result Morocco
0.88–1.36model xG
Canada 23%draw 31%Morocco 46%
Model favoured: Morocco at 46%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.3% · 1/7.50-013.2% · 1/7.60-113.1% · 1/7.60-29.6% · 1/10.41-08.1% · 1/12.31-27.6% · 1/13.1
Sat 04 Jul 02:30 ✓ Favourite won
Colombia 1–0actual result Ghana
2.22–0.57model xG
Colombia 72%draw 20%Ghana 8%
Model favoured: Colombia at 72%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-014.4% · 1/7.01-013.3% · 1/7.53-010.4% · 1/9.61-18.5% · 1/11.80-08.3% · 1/12.02-17.6% · 1/13.1
Fri 03 Jul 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Argentina 3–2actual result Cape Verde
2.29–0.37model xG
Argentina 79%draw 17%Cape Verde 5%
Model favoured: Argentina at 79%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-017.5% · 1/5.71-015.8% · 1/6.33-013.1% · 1/7.60-09.0% · 1/11.14-07.6% · 1/13.11-16.5% · 1/15.3
Fri 03 Jul 19:00 ✗ Upset
Australia 1–1actual result Egypt
1.14–0.76model xG
Australia 43%draw 34%Egypt 23%
Model favoured: Australia at 43%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-017.7% · 1/5.71-015.3% · 1/6.51-113.4% · 1/7.40-110.0% · 1/10.02-09.4% · 1/10.62-16.8% · 1/14.7
Fri 03 Jul 04:00 ✓ Favourite won
Switzerland 2–0actual result Algeria
1.53–0.73model xG
Switzerland 54%draw 29%Algeria 17%
Model favoured: Switzerland at 54%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-014.7% · 1/6.80-013.0% · 1/7.71-112.3% · 1/8.22-011.7% · 1/8.52-18.1% · 1/12.30-16.6% · 1/15.1
Fri 03 Jul 00:00 ✓ Favourite won
Portugal 2–1actual result Croatia
1.69–1.10model xG
Portugal 49%draw 27%Croatia 24%
Model favoured: Portugal at 49%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.0% · 1/8.31-09.5% · 1/10.52-18.7% · 1/11.42-08.6% · 1/11.60-08.5% · 1/11.71-25.8% · 1/17.2
Thu 02 Jul 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Spain 3–0actual result Austria
1.95–0.49model xG
Spain 70%draw 22%Austria 8%
Model favoured: Spain at 70%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-016.2% · 1/6.22-015.8% · 1/6.30-011.0% · 1/9.13-010.2% · 1/9.81-19.0% · 1/11.12-17.3% · 1/13.6
Thu 02 Jul 01:00 ✓ Favourite won
USA 2–0actual result Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.90–0.87model xG
USA 59%draw 24%Bosnia & Herzegovina 17%
Model favoured: USA at 59%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-011.1% · 1/9.01-111.0% · 1/9.12-010.7% · 1/9.30-08.8% · 1/11.42-18.7% · 1/11.53-06.8% · 1/14.6
Wed 01 Jul 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
Belgium 3–2actual result Senegal
1.45–1.00model xG
Belgium 46%draw 29%Senegal 25%
Model favoured: Belgium at 46%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.1% · 1/7.71-011.4% · 1/8.80-011.2% · 1/8.92-08.9% · 1/11.22-18.3% · 1/12.10-17.4% · 1/13.4
Wed 01 Jul 17:00 ✓ Favourite won
England 2–1actual result D.R. Congo
2.02–0.51model xG
England 71%draw 21%D.R. Congo 8%
Model favoured: England at 71%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-015.6% · 1/6.41-015.5% · 1/6.43-010.5% · 1/9.60-010.1% · 1/9.91-18.7% · 1/11.52-17.4% · 1/13.5
Wed 01 Jul 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
Mexico 2–0actual result Ecuador
1.12–0.80model xG
Mexico 41%draw 34%Ecuador 25%
Model favoured: Mexico at 41%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-017.4% · 1/5.71-015.0% · 1/6.71-113.4% · 1/7.50-110.3% · 1/9.72-09.0% · 1/11.22-16.6% · 1/15.1
Tue 30 Jun 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
France 3–0actual result Sweden
2.32–0.85model xG
France 68%draw 20%Sweden 12%
Model favoured: France at 68%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-011.1% · 1/9.01-09.4% · 1/10.71-19.1% · 1/11.02-18.7% · 1/11.53-08.3% · 1/12.03-16.7% · 1/14.9
Tue 30 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Ivory Coast 1–2actual result Norway
0.71–1.79model xG
Ivory Coast 14%draw 25%Norway 61%
Model favoured: Norway at 61%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-113.5% · 1/7.40-212.6% · 1/7.91-111.2% · 1/9.00-010.4% · 1/9.61-28.4% · 1/11.90-37.7% · 1/13.0
Tue 30 Jun 02:00 ✗ Upset
Netherlands 1–1actual result Morocco
1.25–0.99model xG
Netherlands 40%draw 31%Morocco 28%
Model favoured: Netherlands at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.7% · 1/7.30-013.3% · 1/7.51-011.8% · 1/8.50-19.3% · 1/10.82-08.2% · 1/12.22-17.5% · 1/13.4
Mon 29 Jun 21:30 ✗ Upset
Germany 1–1actual result Paraguay
1.88–0.91model xG
Germany 58%draw 25%Paraguay 17%
Model favoured: Germany at 58%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-111.0% · 1/9.11-010.8% · 1/9.22-010.6% · 1/9.42-18.8% · 1/11.30-08.4% · 1/11.93-06.6% · 1/15.1
Mon 29 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Brazil 2–1actual result Japan
1.24–1.01model xG
Brazil 40%draw 31%Japan 29%
Model favoured: Brazil at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.7% · 1/7.30-013.1% · 1/7.71-011.6% · 1/8.60-19.4% · 1/10.62-07.7% · 1/13.02-17.5% · 1/13.4
Sun 28 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
South Africa 0–1actual result Canada
0.79–1.55model xG
South Africa 19%draw 28%Canada 53%
Model favoured: Canada at 53%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-113.6% · 1/7.31-112.4% · 1/8.10-012.1% · 1/8.30-211.3% · 1/8.91-28.1% · 1/12.41-06.6% · 1/15.2
Group J Sun 28 Jun 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
Jordan 1–3actual result Argentina
0.40–3.06model xG
Jordan 3%draw 11%Argentina 86%
Model favoured: Argentina at 86%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-214.3% · 1/7.00-313.7% · 1/7.30-410.4% · 1/9.60-110.0% · 1/10.00-56.8% · 1/14.71-25.6% · 1/18.0
Group J Sun 28 Jun 03:00 ✗ Upset
Algeria 3–3actual result Austria
0.90–1.36model xG
Algeria 24%draw 30%Austria 46%
Model favoured: Austria at 46%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.4% · 1/7.50-112.9% · 1/7.80-012.9% · 1/7.80-29.6% · 1/10.51-08.1% · 1/12.31-27.8% · 1/12.8
Group K Sun 28 Jun 00:30 ✓ Favourite won
D.R. Congo 3–1actual result Uzbekistan
1.10–0.80model xG
D.R. Congo 40%draw 34%Uzbekistan 25%
Model favoured: D.R. Congo at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-017.5% · 1/5.71-014.5% · 1/6.91-113.9% · 1/7.20-110.8% · 1/9.32-08.7% · 1/11.52-16.6% · 1/15.2
Group K Sun 28 Jun 00:30 ✗ Upset
Colombia 0–0actual result Portugal
1.33–1.18model xG
Colombia 38%draw 29%Portugal 32%
Model favoured: Colombia at 38%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.2% · 1/7.60-010.6% · 1/9.41-09.5% · 1/10.50-18.7% · 1/11.52-17.5% · 1/13.32-07.0% · 1/14.2
Group L Sat 27 Jun 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
Croatia 2–1actual result Ghana
1.83–0.81model xG
Croatia 59%draw 25%Ghana 16%
Model favoured: Croatia at 59%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-012.1% · 1/8.32-011.4% · 1/8.81-111.3% · 1/8.90-09.6% · 1/10.42-18.7% · 1/11.53-06.9% · 1/14.5
Group L Sat 27 Jun 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
Panama 0–2actual result England
0.45–2.42model xG
Panama 5%draw 16%England 78%
Model favoured: England at 78%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-215.6% · 1/6.40-113.4% · 1/7.50-312.5% · 1/8.00-47.7% · 1/13.10-07.6% · 1/13.11-17.0% · 1/14.4
Group G Sat 27 Jun 04:00 ✓ Favourite won
New Zealand 1–5actual result Belgium
0.74–2.24model xG
New Zealand 11%draw 20%Belgium 69%
Model favoured: Belgium at 69%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-212.3% · 1/8.20-110.7% · 1/9.31-19.2% · 1/10.90-39.0% · 1/11.11-28.4% · 1/11.80-07.1% · 1/14.0
Group G Sat 27 Jun 04:00 ✗ Upset
Egypt 1–1actual result Iran
1.04–1.00model xG
Egypt 34%draw 33%Iran 32%
Model favoured: Egypt at 34%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-015.6% · 1/6.41-114.2% · 1/7.11-011.9% · 1/8.40-111.7% · 1/8.52-06.9% · 1/14.50-26.5% · 1/15.3
Group H Sat 27 Jun 01:00 ✗ Upset
Cape Verde 0–0actual result Saudi Arabia
0.98–0.82model xG
Cape Verde 36%draw 36%Saudi Arabia 28%
Model favoured: Cape Verde at 36%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-019.2% · 1/5.21-014.5% · 1/6.91-113.8% · 1/7.20-112.1% · 1/8.32-07.9% · 1/12.72-16.0% · 1/16.7
Group H Sat 27 Jun 01:00 ✓ Favourite won
Uruguay 0–1actual result Spain
0.45–1.74model xG
Uruguay 9%draw 25%Spain 67%
Model favoured: Spain at 67%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-118.3% · 1/5.50-216.0% · 1/6.30-013.4% · 1/7.51-19.4% · 1/10.70-39.4% · 1/10.71-26.9% · 1/14.5
Group I Fri 26 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Senegal 5–0actual result Iraq
1.78–0.77model xG
Senegal 59%draw 26%Iraq 15%
Model favoured: Senegal at 59%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-012.9% · 1/7.82-011.9% · 1/8.41-111.4% · 1/8.80-010.1% · 1/9.92-18.7% · 1/11.63-07.1% · 1/14.2
Group I Fri 26 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Norway 1–4actual result France
1.24–1.47model xG
Norway 31%draw 28%France 41%
Model favoured: France at 41%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.8% · 1/7.80-09.1% · 1/10.90-18.7% · 1/11.51-27.9% · 1/12.61-07.3% · 1/13.80-27.1% · 1/14.1
Group D Fri 26 Jun 03:00 ✗ Upset
Paraguay 0–0actual result Australia
0.94–1.19model xG
Paraguay 28%draw 32%Australia 40%
Model favoured: Australia at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-014.4% · 1/7.01-113.8% · 1/7.20-112.8% · 1/7.81-09.7% · 1/10.30-28.4% · 1/11.91-27.1% · 1/14.1
Group D Fri 26 Jun 03:00 ✗ Upset
Turkey 3–2actual result USA
1.20–1.34model xG
Turkey 32%draw 29%USA 39%
Model favoured: USA at 39%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.1% · 1/7.60-010.4% · 1/9.60-19.6% · 1/10.41-08.4% · 1/11.91-27.7% · 1/13.00-27.1% · 1/14.1
Group F Fri 26 Jun 00:00 ✓ Favourite won
Tunisia 1–3actual result Netherlands
0.61–2.80model xG
Tunisia 6%draw 14%Netherlands 80%
Model favoured: Netherlands at 80%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-212.6% · 1/7.90-311.2% · 1/8.90-19.2% · 1/10.90-48.1% · 1/12.31-27.2% · 1/13.91-36.6% · 1/15.2
Group F Fri 26 Jun 00:00 ✗ Upset
Japan 1–1actual result Sweden
1.83–1.13model xG
Japan 52%draw 25%Sweden 23%
Model favoured: Japan at 52%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-111.3% · 1/8.91-08.8% · 1/11.32-18.8% · 1/11.42-08.7% · 1/11.50-07.5% · 1/13.41-25.7% · 1/17.5
Group E Thu 25 Jun 21:00 ✗ Upset
Ecuador 2–1actual result Germany
0.86–1.34model xG
Ecuador 23%draw 31%Germany 46%
Model favoured: Germany at 46%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-013.5% · 1/7.40-113.5% · 1/7.41-113.3% · 1/7.50-29.8% · 1/10.21-08.3% · 1/12.11-27.7% · 1/13.0
Group E Thu 25 Jun 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
Curacao 0–2actual result Ivory Coast
0.65–2.03model xG
Curacao 11%draw 22%Ivory Coast 67%
Model favoured: Ivory Coast at 67%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-213.6% · 1/7.40-113.1% · 1/7.61-19.8% · 1/10.20-39.3% · 1/10.80-08.9% · 1/11.21-28.3% · 1/12.0
Group A Thu 25 Jun 02:00 ✗ Upset
South Africa 1–0actual result South Korea
0.78–1.47model xG
South Africa 19%draw 29%South Korea 51%
Model favoured: South Korea at 51%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-114.1% · 1/7.10-012.9% · 1/7.81-112.6% · 1/7.90-211.1% · 1/9.01-28.0% · 1/12.61-07.1% · 1/14.0
Group A Thu 25 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Czech Republic 0–3actual result Mexico
0.63–1.75model xG
Czech Republic 13%draw 25%Mexico 62%
Model favoured: Mexico at 62%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-115.1% · 1/6.60-213.5% · 1/7.40-011.7% · 1/8.61-110.8% · 1/9.30-38.1% · 1/12.31-28.0% · 1/12.5
Group C Wed 24 Jun 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Scotland 0–3actual result Brazil
0.75–1.48model xG
Scotland 18%draw 29%Brazil 52%
Model favoured: Brazil at 52%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-114.5% · 1/6.90-013.2% · 1/7.61-112.6% · 1/8.00-211.4% · 1/8.71-27.9% · 1/12.61-07.0% · 1/14.2
Group C Wed 24 Jun 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Morocco 4–2actual result Haiti
2.00–0.52model xG
Morocco 70%draw 22%Haiti 8%
Model favoured: Morocco at 70%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.4% · 1/6.52-015.3% · 1/6.50-010.3% · 1/9.73-010.1% · 1/9.91-19.0% · 1/11.22-17.5% · 1/13.4
Group B Wed 24 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Bosnia & Herzegovina 3–1actual result Qatar
1.66–0.78model xG
Bosnia & Herzegovina 56%draw 27%Qatar 17%
Model favoured: Bosnia & Herzegovina at 56%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-013.3% · 1/7.51-112.0% · 1/8.32-011.6% · 1/8.60-011.0% · 1/9.12-18.6% · 1/11.63-06.4% · 1/15.7
Group B Wed 24 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Switzerland 2–1actual result Canada
1.44–0.87model xG
Switzerland 48%draw 30%Canada 22%
Model favoured: Switzerland at 48%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-012.9% · 1/7.81-112.9% · 1/7.80-012.6% · 1/7.92-010.0% · 1/10.02-18.0% · 1/12.50-17.5% · 1/13.4
Group K Wed 24 Jun 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
Colombia 1–0actual result D.R. Congo
1.71–0.64model xG
Colombia 61%draw 26%D.R. Congo 13%
Model favoured: Colombia at 61%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.2% · 1/6.62-013.3% · 1/7.50-012.0% · 1/8.31-111.0% · 1/9.12-18.1% · 1/12.33-07.6% · 1/13.2
Group L Wed 24 Jun 00:00 ✓ Favourite won
Panama 0–1actual result Croatia
0.81–1.67model xG
Panama 18%draw 27%Croatia 56%
Model favoured: Croatia at 56%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-112.8% · 1/7.81-112.1% · 1/8.20-211.3% · 1/8.90-010.6% · 1/9.41-28.4% · 1/11.90-36.5% · 1/15.5
Group L Tue 23 Jun 21:00 ✗ Upset
England 0–0actual result Ghana
2.62–0.45model xG
England 81%draw 14%Ghana 5%
Model favoured: England at 81%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-015.2% · 1/6.63-012.7% · 1/7.91-012.2% · 1/8.24-08.5% · 1/11.82-16.6% · 1/15.10-06.4% · 1/15.6
Group K Tue 23 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Portugal 5–0actual result Uzbekistan
2.08–0.63model xG
Portugal 69%draw 21%Uzbekistan 10%
Model favoured: Portugal at 69%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-013.7% · 1/7.31-013.3% · 1/7.53-09.4% · 1/10.71-19.3% · 1/10.80-09.0% · 1/11.12-18.0% · 1/12.5
Group J Tue 23 Jun 04:00 ✓ Favourite won
Jordan 1–2actual result Algeria
1.00–1.37model xG
Jordan 26%draw 30%Algeria 44%
Model favoured: Algeria at 44%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.3% · 1/7.50-011.7% · 1/8.50-111.6% · 1/8.60-28.7% · 1/11.41-08.1% · 1/12.31-28.1% · 1/12.4
Group I Tue 23 Jun 01:00 ✓ Favourite won
Norway 3–2actual result Senegal
2.03–0.94model xG
Norway 61%draw 23%Senegal 16%
Model favoured: Norway at 61%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-010.4% · 1/9.61-110.4% · 1/9.61-09.9% · 1/10.12-18.8% · 1/11.40-07.3% · 1/13.73-07.0% · 1/14.3
Group I Mon 22 Jun 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
France 3–0actual result Iraq
2.78–0.47model xG
France 83%draw 13%Iraq 4%
Model favoured: France at 83%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-014.6% · 1/6.83-012.9% · 1/7.71-011.0% · 1/9.14-09.0% · 1/11.22-16.5% · 1/15.43-15.9% · 1/16.9
Group J Mon 22 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Argentina 2–0actual result Austria
1.97–0.57model xG
Argentina 68%draw 22%Austria 9%
Model favoured: Argentina at 68%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-014.8% · 1/6.82-014.7% · 1/6.80-010.2% · 1/9.81-19.5% · 1/10.53-09.5% · 1/10.52-17.8% · 1/12.9
Group G Mon 22 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
New Zealand 1–3actual result Egypt
0.88–1.40model xG
New Zealand 23%draw 30%Egypt 47%
Model favoured: Egypt at 47%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.2% · 1/7.60-113.0% · 1/7.70-012.7% · 1/7.80-29.8% · 1/10.21-07.8% · 1/12.81-27.8% · 1/12.9
Group H Sun 21 Jun 23:00 ✗ Upset
Uruguay 2–2actual result Cape Verde
1.21–0.65model xG
Uruguay 48%draw 33%Cape Verde 19%
Model favoured: Uruguay at 48%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-018.1% · 1/5.51-017.1% · 1/5.91-112.7% · 1/7.92-011.0% · 1/9.10-18.9% · 1/11.22-16.7% · 1/14.8
Group G Sun 21 Jun 20:00 ✗ Upset
Belgium 0–0actual result Iran
1.64–0.87model xG
Belgium 54%draw 27%Iran 19%
Model favoured: Belgium at 54%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-012.3% · 1/8.21-112.2% · 1/8.20-010.6% · 1/9.42-010.5% · 1/9.52-18.7% · 1/11.50-16.0% · 1/16.6
Group H Sun 21 Jun 17:00 ✓ Favourite won
Spain 4–0actual result Saudi Arabia
2.63–0.30model xG
Spain 85%draw 13%Saudi Arabia 3%
Model favoured: Spain at 85%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-017.6% · 1/5.73-014.9% · 1/6.71-014.2% · 1/7.04-09.8% · 1/10.20-07.0% · 1/14.25-05.6% · 1/17.8
Group F Sun 21 Jun 05:00 ✓ Favourite won
Tunisia 0–4actual result Japan
0.65–2.55model xG
Tunisia 8%draw 17%Japan 76%
Model favoured: Japan at 76%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-212.8% · 1/7.80-310.5% · 1/9.50-110.1% · 1/9.91-27.7% · 1/12.91-17.7% · 1/13.00-47.0% · 1/14.4
Group E Sun 21 Jun 01:00 ✗ Upset
Ecuador 0–0actual result Curacao
2.32–0.52model xG
Ecuador 75%draw 18%Curacao 7%
Model favoured: Ecuador at 75%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-015.0% · 1/6.71-013.2% · 1/7.63-011.5% · 1/8.70-07.8% · 1/12.81-17.7% · 1/13.02-17.4% · 1/13.6
Group E Sat 20 Jun 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
Germany 2–1actual result Ivory Coast
1.68–0.76model xG
Germany 57%draw 27%Ivory Coast 16%
Model favoured: Germany at 57%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-013.5% · 1/7.41-111.7% · 1/8.62-011.7% · 1/8.60-011.2% · 1/9.02-18.5% · 1/11.83-06.6% · 1/15.2
Group F Sat 20 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Netherlands 5–1actual result Sweden
2.01–1.05model xG
Netherlands 58%draw 23%Sweden 19%
Model favoured: Netherlands at 58%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-110.5% · 1/9.52-09.3% · 1/10.72-18.9% · 1/11.31-08.8% · 1/11.30-06.7% · 1/14.83-06.3% · 1/15.9
Group D Sat 20 Jun 04:00 ✗ Upset
Turkey 0–1actual result Paraguay
1.30–1.11model xG
Turkey 39%draw 30%Paraguay 31%
Model favoured: Turkey at 39%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.6% · 1/7.40-011.6% · 1/8.71-010.4% · 1/9.60-18.7% · 1/11.42-07.7% · 1/13.02-17.6% · 1/13.1
Group C Sat 20 Jun 01:30 ✓ Favourite won
Brazil 3–0actual result Haiti
2.35–0.46model xG
Brazil 77%draw 17%Haiti 6%
Model favoured: Brazil at 77%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-015.8% · 1/6.31-013.8% · 1/7.23-012.2% · 1/8.20-08.0% · 1/12.64-07.3% · 1/13.81-17.1% · 1/14.1
Group C Fri 19 Jun 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Scotland 0–1actual result Morocco
0.84–1.26model xG
Scotland 24%draw 32%Morocco 44%
Model favoured: Morocco at 44%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-014.8% · 1/6.70-114.0% · 1/7.11-113.4% · 1/7.50-29.6% · 1/10.41-09.0% · 1/11.21-27.4% · 1/13.6
Group D Fri 19 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
USA 2–0actual result Australia
1.30–1.23model xG
USA 37%draw 29%Australia 34%
Model favoured: USA at 37%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.2% · 1/7.50-010.4% · 1/9.61-09.1% · 1/11.00-18.9% · 1/11.32-17.4% · 1/13.61-27.0% · 1/14.3
Group A Fri 19 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Mexico 1–0actual result South Korea
1.70–0.80model xG
Mexico 56%draw 27%South Korea 17%
Model favoured: Mexico at 56%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-012.9% · 1/7.81-111.7% · 1/8.52-011.2% · 1/8.90-010.9% · 1/9.22-18.3% · 1/12.03-06.3% · 1/15.8
Group B Thu 18 Jun 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Canada 6–0actual result Qatar
2.32–0.69model xG
Canada 72%draw 19%Qatar 9%
Model favoured: Canada at 72%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-012.9% · 1/7.81-011.1% · 1/9.03-09.7% · 1/10.31-18.6% · 1/11.62-18.3% · 1/12.00-06.9% · 1/14.5
Group B Thu 18 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Switzerland 4–1actual result Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.63–0.62model xG
Switzerland 60%draw 27%Bosnia & Herzegovina 13%
Model favoured: Switzerland at 60%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.8% · 1/6.32-013.3% · 1/7.50-012.9% · 1/7.71-111.3% · 1/8.82-18.0% · 1/12.43-07.3% · 1/13.7
Group A Thu 18 Jun 17:00 ✗ Upset
Czech Republic 1–1actual result South Africa
1.29–0.93model xG
Czech Republic 43%draw 31%South Africa 26%
Model favoured: Czech Republic at 43%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.6% · 1/7.40-013.4% · 1/7.41-012.5% · 1/8.02-08.9% · 1/11.20-18.8% · 1/11.42-17.6% · 1/13.2
Group K Thu 18 Jun 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
Uzbekistan 1–3actual result Colombia
0.57–2.09model xG
Uzbekistan 9%draw 21%Colombia 70%
Model favoured: Colombia at 70%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-214.3% · 1/7.00-113.8% · 1/7.30-310.0% · 1/10.00-09.2% · 1/10.91-19.0% · 1/11.11-27.8% · 1/12.8
Group L Thu 18 Jun 00:00 ✗ Upset
Ghana 1–0actual result Panama
0.97–1.03model xG
Ghana 31%draw 34%Panama 35%
Model favoured: Panama at 35%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-016.1% · 1/6.21-114.2% · 1/7.00-112.6% · 1/7.91-011.5% · 1/8.70-27.3% · 1/13.71-26.3% · 1/15.9
Group L Wed 17 Jun 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
England 4–2actual result Croatia
2.02–0.80model xG
England 64%draw 23%Croatia 14%
Model favoured: England at 64%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-011.8% · 1/8.51-011.5% · 1/8.71-110.1% · 1/9.92-18.8% · 1/11.33-08.0% · 1/12.50-08.0% · 1/12.5
Group K Wed 17 Jun 18:00 ✗ Upset
Portugal 1–1actual result D.R. Congo
1.68–0.69model xG
Portugal 59%draw 27%D.R. Congo 14%
Model favoured: Portugal at 59%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-014.5% · 1/6.92-012.6% · 1/7.90-011.6% · 1/8.61-111.6% · 1/8.62-18.5% · 1/11.83-07.1% · 1/14.0
Group J Wed 17 Jun 05:00 ✓ Favourite won
Austria 3–1actual result Jordan
1.71–0.81model xG
Austria 57%draw 26%Jordan 17%
Model favoured: Austria at 57%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-012.7% · 1/7.91-111.9% · 1/8.42-011.3% · 1/8.80-010.3% · 1/9.72-18.8% · 1/11.43-06.5% · 1/15.5
Group J Wed 17 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Argentina 3–0actual result Algeria
2.42–0.45model xG
Argentina 79%draw 16%Algeria 5%
Model favoured: Argentina at 79%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-016.0% · 1/6.31-013.4% · 1/7.53-012.5% · 1/8.04-07.7% · 1/13.00-07.4% · 1/13.62-16.9% · 1/14.5
Group I Tue 16 Jun 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Iraq 1–4actual result Norway
0.57–2.91model xG
Iraq 5%draw 13%Norway 83%
Model favoured: Norway at 83%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-212.9% · 1/7.80-312.1% · 1/8.30-18.9% · 1/11.20-48.9% · 1/11.31-27.0% · 1/14.31-36.5% · 1/15.5
Group I Tue 16 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
France 3–1actual result Senegal
1.92–0.77model xG
France 62%draw 24%Senegal 14%
Model favoured: France at 62%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-012.4% · 1/8.12-012.2% · 1/8.21-110.6% · 1/9.40-09.0% · 1/11.12-18.7% · 1/11.53-07.8% · 1/12.9
Group G Tue 16 Jun 02:00 ✗ Upset
Iran 2–2actual result New Zealand
1.66–1.07model xG
Iran 49%draw 27%New Zealand 24%
Model favoured: Iran at 49%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.2% · 1/8.21-09.9% · 1/10.10-08.9% · 1/11.32-18.8% · 1/11.42-08.8% · 1/11.40-16.0% · 1/16.7
Group H Mon 15 Jun 23:00 ✗ Upset
Saudi Arabia 1–1actual result Uruguay
0.62–1.39model xG
Saudi Arabia 16%draw 30%Uruguay 54%
Model favoured: Uruguay at 54%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-117.1% · 1/5.90-015.6% · 1/6.40-212.6% · 1/7.91-112.2% · 1/8.21-27.3% · 1/13.81-07.2% · 1/13.8
Group G Mon 15 Jun 20:00 ✗ Upset
Belgium 1–1actual result Egypt
1.36–0.73model xG
Belgium 50%draw 31%Egypt 19%
Model favoured: Belgium at 50%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.4% · 1/6.50-014.9% · 1/6.71-112.9% · 1/7.82-011.2% · 1/9.00-17.8% · 1/12.82-17.6% · 1/13.2
Group H Mon 15 Jun 17:00 ✗ Upset
Spain 0–0actual result Cape Verde
2.26–0.31model xG
Spain 80%draw 17%Cape Verde 4%
Model favoured: Spain at 80%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-018.5% · 1/5.41-016.9% · 1/5.93-013.8% · 1/7.20-09.5% · 1/10.64-07.9% · 1/12.71-16.0% · 1/16.6
Group F Mon 15 Jun 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
Sweden 5–1actual result Tunisia
2.29–0.97model xG
Sweden 65%draw 21%Tunisia 14%
Model favoured: Sweden at 65%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-010.0% · 1/10.01-19.3% · 1/10.72-18.9% · 1/11.31-08.3% · 1/12.13-07.4% · 1/13.63-16.8% · 1/14.7
Group E Mon 15 Jun 00:00 ✗ Upset
Ivory Coast 1–0actual result Ecuador
0.67–0.97model xG
Ivory Coast 23%draw 37%Ecuador 40%
Model favoured: Ecuador at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-021.9% · 1/4.60-117.0% · 1/5.91-113.2% · 1/7.61-011.6% · 1/8.60-28.9% · 1/11.21-25.7% · 1/17.5
Group F Sun 14 Jun 21:00 ✗ Upset
Netherlands 2–2actual result Japan
1.35–1.17model xG
Netherlands 39%draw 30%Japan 31%
Model favoured: Netherlands at 39%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.4% · 1/7.50-010.6% · 1/9.51-09.6% · 1/10.40-18.2% · 1/12.22-17.8% · 1/12.82-07.4% · 1/13.5
Group E Sun 14 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Germany 7–1actual result Curacao
4.01–0.58model xG
Germany 91%draw 7%Curacao 2%
Model favoured: Germany at 91%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
3-010.6% · 1/9.44-010.4% · 1/9.62-08.5% · 1/11.75-08.5% · 1/11.83-15.8% · 1/17.36-05.8% · 1/17.3
Group D Sun 14 Jun 05:00 ✓ Favourite won
Australia 2–0actual result Turkey
1.16–1.09model xG
Australia 36%draw 32%Turkey 32%
Model favoured: Australia at 36%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.8% · 1/7.20-013.1% · 1/7.61-011.0% · 1/9.10-110.1% · 1/9.92-17.1% · 1/14.12-07.1% · 1/14.2
Group C Sun 14 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Haiti 0–1actual result Scotland
0.67–1.71model xG
Haiti 14%draw 26%Scotland 60%
Model favoured: Scotland at 60%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-114.6% · 1/6.80-213.0% · 1/7.70-011.4% · 1/8.81-111.3% · 1/8.81-28.2% · 1/12.10-37.6% · 1/13.1
Group C Sat 13 Jun 23:00 ✗ Upset
Brazil 1–1actual result Morocco
1.14–0.86model xG
Brazil 40%draw 33%Morocco 26%
Model favoured: Brazil at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-016.1% · 1/6.21-113.9% · 1/7.21-013.7% · 1/7.30-110.4% · 1/9.62-08.6% · 1/11.62-16.9% · 1/14.5
Group B Sat 13 Jun 20:00 ✗ Upset
Qatar 1–1actual result Switzerland
0.47–2.69model xG
Qatar 4%draw 14%Switzerland 82%
Model favoured: Switzerland at 82%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-214.9% · 1/6.70-312.9% · 1/7.70-111.2% · 1/8.90-48.9% · 1/11.21-26.7% · 1/14.91-16.1% · 1/16.5
Group D Sat 13 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
USA 4–1actual result Paraguay
1.55–1.18model xG
USA 45%draw 28%Paraguay 28%
Model favoured: USA at 45%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.5% · 1/8.01-09.2% · 1/10.80-08.9% · 1/11.22-18.4% · 1/11.92-07.8% · 1/12.80-16.7% · 1/15.0
Group B Fri 12 Jun 20:00 ✗ Upset
Canada 1–1actual result Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.57–0.89model xG
Canada 51%draw 28%Bosnia & Herzegovina 21%
Model favoured: Canada at 51%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.6% · 1/7.91-012.1% · 1/8.20-010.9% · 1/9.22-010.2% · 1/9.82-18.7% · 1/11.50-16.5% · 1/15.3
Group A Fri 12 Jun 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
South Korea 2–1actual result Czech Republic
1.37–1.03model xG
South Korea 43%draw 30%Czech Republic 27%
Model favoured: South Korea at 43%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.5% · 1/7.40-011.5% · 1/8.71-011.1% · 1/9.02-08.5% · 1/11.70-18.1% · 1/12.42-18.1% · 1/12.4
Group A Thu 11 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Mexico 2–0actual result South Africa
2.11–0.54model xG
Mexico 72%draw 20%South Africa 8%
Model favoured: Mexico at 72%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-015.0% · 1/6.71-014.3% · 1/7.03-010.5% · 1/9.50-09.2% · 1/10.91-18.6% · 1/11.62-17.6% · 1/13.2