Scottish Football Predictions

4 upcoming fixtures · updated 2026-09-13 08:05

Scottish Premiership

MatchHomeDrawAwayTop scoreIf result lands
Falkirk v Heart of Midlothian
Tue 15 Sep · 19:45
28%27%46%1-1
13%
0-1
11% · Heart of Midlothian
Hibernian v Kilmarnock
Tue 15 Sep · 19:45
58%22%20%1-1
10%
2-1
10% · Hibernian
Motherwell v Aberdeen
Tue 15 Sep · 19:45
56%25%20%1-1
12%
1-0
12% · Motherwell

Scottish Championship

MatchHomeDrawAwayTop scoreIf result lands
Stenhousemuir v Partick Thistle
Tue 15 Sep · 19:45
42%32%26%1-1
15%
1-0
12% · Stenhousemuir
About this model. A Dixon-Coles Poisson goal model fitted on five seasons of Scottish league results, refitted before each round. It predicts match result and the full scoreline distribution; the fit moves from pooling all four divisions towards a division-specific one as a season accumulates its own data.
These are model probabilities for information only, not betting advice. In walk-forward testing on a held-out season this model did not beat bookmaker prices — flat-stake betting on its disagreements lost money. It is published as a calibrated forecast, not an edge.