World Cup 2026 — Previous Predictions

How the model performed on completed matches · updated 2026-07-16 22:19
102
Matches played
73
Model favourite won
72%
Accuracy
Correct score coverage — picks per game
top 1
16%
top 2
25%
top 3
34%
top 4
45%
top 5
56%
Wed 15 Jul 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
England 1–2actual result Argentina
0.87–1.37model xG
England 23%draw 31%Argentina 46%
Model favoured: Argentina at 46%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-013.4% · 1/7.51-113.3% · 1/7.50-113.3% · 1/7.50-29.4% · 1/10.61-08.0% · 1/12.51-27.9% · 1/12.6
Tue 14 Jul 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
France 0–2actual result Spain
0.84–1.17model xG
France 25%draw 33%Spain 42%
Model favoured: Spain at 42%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-016.0% · 1/6.30-114.0% · 1/7.21-113.9% · 1/7.21-09.7% · 1/10.30-29.0% · 1/11.11-26.9% · 1/14.4
Sun 12 Jul 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Argentina 3–1actual result Switzerland
1.63–0.62model xG
Argentina 59%draw 27%Switzerland 13%
Model favoured: Argentina at 59%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.8% · 1/6.32-013.2% · 1/7.60-013.1% · 1/7.61-111.4% · 1/8.82-18.0% · 1/12.63-07.2% · 1/13.8
Sat 11 Jul 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
Norway 1–2actual result England
1.24–1.46model xG
Norway 31%draw 28%England 41%
Model favoured: England at 41%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.8% · 1/7.80-09.2% · 1/10.90-18.8% · 1/11.41-28.2% · 1/12.20-27.3% · 1/13.71-07.2% · 1/13.9
Fri 10 Jul 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Spain 2–1actual result Belgium
1.66–0.61model xG
Spain 60%draw 27%Belgium 13%
Model favoured: Spain at 60%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.9% · 1/6.32-013.4% · 1/7.50-013.0% · 1/7.71-111.2% · 1/9.02-17.9% · 1/12.63-07.5% · 1/13.4
Thu 09 Jul 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
France 2–0actual result Morocco
1.52–0.75model xG
France 54%draw 29%Morocco 17%
Model favoured: France at 54%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-014.4% · 1/7.00-013.0% · 1/7.71-112.4% · 1/8.02-011.5% · 1/8.72-18.1% · 1/12.30-16.6% · 1/15.1
Tue 07 Jul 21:00 ✗ Upset
Switzerland 0–0actual result Colombia
0.97–1.30model xG
Switzerland 27%draw 31%Colombia 42%
Model favoured: Colombia at 42%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.5% · 1/7.40-013.2% · 1/7.60-111.9% · 1/8.41-08.8% · 1/11.30-28.4% · 1/11.91-27.7% · 1/13.1
Tue 07 Jul 17:00 ✓ Favourite won
Argentina 3–2actual result Egypt
2.09–0.41model xG
Argentina 74%draw 20%Egypt 6%
Model favoured: Argentina at 74%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-017.0% · 1/5.91-016.6% · 1/6.03-011.7% · 1/8.60-010.5% · 1/9.51-17.7% · 1/12.92-16.5% · 1/15.3
Tue 07 Jul 01:00 ✓ Favourite won
USA 1–4actual result Belgium
1.26–1.48model xG
USA 31%draw 28%Belgium 41%
Model favoured: Belgium at 41%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.7% · 1/7.90-08.9% · 1/11.20-18.6% · 1/11.71-27.9% · 1/12.60-27.1% · 1/14.01-07.0% · 1/14.3
Mon 06 Jul 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Portugal 0–1actual result Spain
0.71–1.57model xG
Portugal 16%draw 28%Spain 56%
Model favoured: Spain at 56%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-114.6% · 1/6.80-012.6% · 1/7.90-212.1% · 1/8.21-112.1% · 1/8.31-28.1% · 1/12.40-36.6% · 1/15.1
Mon 06 Jul 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Mexico 2–3actual result England
0.96–1.42model xG
Mexico 25%draw 30%England 46%
Model favoured: England at 46%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.1% · 1/7.60-011.9% · 1/8.40-111.8% · 1/8.50-29.2% · 1/10.81-28.0% · 1/12.51-07.7% · 1/13.1
Sun 05 Jul 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
Brazil 1–2actual result Norway
1.15–1.36model xG
Brazil 30%draw 29%Norway 40%
Model favoured: Norway at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.4% · 1/7.50-010.6% · 1/9.40-19.9% · 1/10.11-08.0% · 1/12.51-27.9% · 1/12.60-27.6% · 1/13.2
Sat 04 Jul 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
Paraguay 0–1actual result France
0.65–2.01model xG
Paraguay 11%draw 22%France 67%
Model favoured: France at 67%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-213.6% · 1/7.30-113.2% · 1/7.61-110.0% · 1/10.00-39.2% · 1/10.90-09.2% · 1/10.91-28.3% · 1/12.1
Sat 04 Jul 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Canada 0–3actual result Morocco
0.74–1.41model xG
Canada 19%draw 30%Morocco 51%
Model favoured: Morocco at 51%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-114.8% · 1/6.70-014.3% · 1/7.01-112.8% · 1/7.80-211.2% · 1/9.01-27.7% · 1/13.01-07.4% · 1/13.5
Sat 04 Jul 02:30 ✓ Favourite won
Colombia 1–0actual result Ghana
2.34–0.57model xG
Colombia 74%draw 18%Ghana 8%
Model favoured: Colombia at 74%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-014.2% · 1/7.11-012.5% · 1/8.03-010.9% · 1/9.21-17.9% · 1/12.60-07.6% · 1/13.12-17.6% · 1/13.2
Fri 03 Jul 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Argentina 3–2actual result Cape Verde
2.36–0.36model xG
Argentina 80%draw 16%Cape Verde 4%
Model favoured: Argentina at 80%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-017.5% · 1/5.71-015.4% · 1/6.53-013.5% · 1/7.40-08.6% · 1/11.64-08.1% · 1/12.31-16.1% · 1/16.3
Fri 03 Jul 19:00 ✗ Upset
Australia 1–1actual result Egypt
1.14–0.76model xG
Australia 43%draw 34%Egypt 23%
Model favoured: Australia at 43%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-017.7% · 1/5.61-015.3% · 1/6.61-113.5% · 1/7.40-19.9% · 1/10.12-09.5% · 1/10.62-16.8% · 1/14.6
Fri 03 Jul 04:00 ✓ Favourite won
Switzerland 2–0actual result Algeria
1.56–0.73model xG
Switzerland 55%draw 28%Algeria 17%
Model favoured: Switzerland at 55%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-014.4% · 1/6.90-012.8% · 1/7.81-112.2% · 1/8.22-011.8% · 1/8.52-18.2% · 1/12.10-16.4% · 1/15.6
Fri 03 Jul 00:00 ✓ Favourite won
Portugal 2–1actual result Croatia
1.71–1.10model xG
Portugal 50%draw 27%Croatia 24%
Model favoured: Portugal at 50%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.0% · 1/8.31-09.4% · 1/10.72-18.7% · 1/11.52-08.7% · 1/11.50-08.5% · 1/11.81-25.8% · 1/17.1
Thu 02 Jul 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Spain 3–0actual result Austria
1.90–0.51model xG
Spain 68%draw 23%Austria 9%
Model favoured: Spain at 68%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-016.1% · 1/6.22-015.3% · 1/6.50-011.4% · 1/8.83-09.6% · 1/10.41-19.5% · 1/10.52-17.5% · 1/13.3
Thu 02 Jul 01:00 ✓ Favourite won
USA 2–0actual result Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.94–0.87model xG
USA 60%draw 24%Bosnia & Herzegovina 16%
Model favoured: USA at 60%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-110.9% · 1/9.11-010.8% · 1/9.32-010.7% · 1/9.42-18.8% · 1/11.40-08.6% · 1/11.73-07.0% · 1/14.3
Wed 01 Jul 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
Belgium 3–2actual result Senegal
1.44–1.01model xG
Belgium 45%draw 29%Senegal 25%
Model favoured: Belgium at 45%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.2% · 1/7.60-011.3% · 1/8.81-011.3% · 1/8.92-08.8% · 1/11.32-18.3% · 1/12.10-17.4% · 1/13.5
Wed 01 Jul 17:00 ✓ Favourite won
England 2–1actual result D.R. Congo
1.93–0.55model xG
England 68%draw 23%D.R. Congo 9%
Model favoured: England at 68%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.3% · 1/6.52-014.9% · 1/6.70-010.7% · 1/9.41-19.6% · 1/10.43-09.5% · 1/10.52-17.8% · 1/12.9
Wed 01 Jul 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
Mexico 2–0actual result Ecuador
1.12–0.80model xG
Mexico 41%draw 34%Ecuador 25%
Model favoured: Mexico at 41%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-017.5% · 1/5.71-014.8% · 1/6.71-113.5% · 1/7.40-110.2% · 1/9.82-08.9% · 1/11.22-16.6% · 1/15.1
Tue 30 Jun 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
France 3–0actual result Sweden
2.45–0.79model xG
France 71%draw 18%Sweden 10%
Model favoured: France at 71%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-011.6% · 1/8.61-09.3% · 1/10.83-09.1% · 1/10.92-18.4% · 1/11.91-18.4% · 1/11.93-16.8% · 1/14.8
Tue 30 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Ivory Coast 1–2actual result Norway
0.72–1.79model xG
Ivory Coast 14%draw 25%Norway 61%
Model favoured: Norway at 61%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-113.4% · 1/7.50-212.6% · 1/8.01-111.2% · 1/8.90-010.4% · 1/9.61-28.4% · 1/11.80-37.7% · 1/13.1
Tue 30 Jun 02:00 ✗ Upset
Netherlands 1–1actual result Morocco
1.25–1.00model xG
Netherlands 40%draw 32%Morocco 28%
Model favoured: Netherlands at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.8% · 1/7.20-013.3% · 1/7.51-011.7% · 1/8.60-19.2% · 1/10.92-08.2% · 1/12.22-17.5% · 1/13.4
Mon 29 Jun 21:30 ✗ Upset
Germany 1–1actual result Paraguay
1.89–0.91model xG
Germany 58%draw 25%Paraguay 17%
Model favoured: Germany at 58%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-111.1% · 1/9.01-010.7% · 1/9.32-010.6% · 1/9.52-18.9% · 1/11.30-08.4% · 1/11.93-06.6% · 1/15.1
Mon 29 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Brazil 2–1actual result Japan
1.24–1.01model xG
Brazil 40%draw 31%Japan 29%
Model favoured: Brazil at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.8% · 1/7.30-013.1% · 1/7.61-011.4% · 1/8.70-19.3% · 1/10.72-07.7% · 1/13.02-17.5% · 1/13.4
Sun 28 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
South Africa 0–1actual result Canada
0.82–1.30model xG
South Africa 23%draw 32%Canada 46%
Model favoured: Canada at 46%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-014.7% · 1/6.80-114.0% · 1/7.11-113.3% · 1/7.50-210.0% · 1/10.01-08.5% · 1/11.81-27.4% · 1/13.5
Group J Sun 28 Jun 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
Jordan 1–3actual result Argentina
0.39–3.13model xG
Jordan 3%draw 10%Argentina 87%
Model favoured: Argentina at 87%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-214.2% · 1/7.10-313.9% · 1/7.20-410.8% · 1/9.30-19.7% · 1/10.40-57.2% · 1/13.91-25.3% · 1/19.0
Group J Sun 28 Jun 03:00 ✗ Upset
Algeria 3–3actual result Austria
0.90–1.35model xG
Algeria 24%draw 31%Austria 45%
Model favoured: Austria at 45%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.5% · 1/7.40-013.0% · 1/7.70-112.8% · 1/7.80-29.5% · 1/10.51-08.1% · 1/12.41-27.8% · 1/12.9
Group K Sun 28 Jun 00:30 ✓ Favourite won
D.R. Congo 3–1actual result Uzbekistan
1.10–0.81model xG
D.R. Congo 40%draw 35%Uzbekistan 26%
Model favoured: D.R. Congo at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-017.6% · 1/5.71-014.3% · 1/7.01-114.0% · 1/7.20-110.7% · 1/9.32-08.6% · 1/11.62-16.6% · 1/15.3
Group K Sun 28 Jun 00:30 ✗ Upset
Colombia 0–0actual result Portugal
1.33–1.18model xG
Colombia 38%draw 29%Portugal 32%
Model favoured: Colombia at 38%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.4% · 1/7.50-010.6% · 1/9.41-09.4% · 1/10.70-18.6% · 1/11.72-17.5% · 1/13.32-07.0% · 1/14.2
Group L Sat 27 Jun 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
Croatia 2–1actual result Ghana
1.92–0.82model xG
Croatia 61%draw 24%Ghana 15%
Model favoured: Croatia at 61%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-011.5% · 1/8.72-011.4% · 1/8.81-110.8% · 1/9.20-08.9% · 1/11.22-18.6% · 1/11.63-07.3% · 1/13.7
Group L Sat 27 Jun 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
Panama 0–2actual result England
0.51–2.30model xG
Panama 7%draw 18%England 75%
Model favoured: England at 75%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-215.0% · 1/6.70-113.2% · 1/7.60-311.5% · 1/8.70-08.1% · 1/12.31-17.9% · 1/12.61-27.3% · 1/13.6
Group G Sat 27 Jun 04:00 ✓ Favourite won
New Zealand 1–5actual result Belgium
0.74–2.24model xG
New Zealand 11%draw 20%Belgium 69%
Model favoured: Belgium at 69%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-212.2% · 1/8.20-110.6% · 1/9.41-19.2% · 1/10.80-39.0% · 1/11.21-28.5% · 1/11.80-07.2% · 1/14.0
Group G Sat 27 Jun 04:00 ✗ Upset
Egypt 1–1actual result Iran
1.04–1.01model xG
Egypt 34%draw 34%Iran 33%
Model favoured: Egypt at 34%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-015.6% · 1/6.41-114.3% · 1/7.01-011.7% · 1/8.60-111.6% · 1/8.72-06.8% · 1/14.60-26.6% · 1/15.1
Group H Sat 27 Jun 01:00 ✓ Favourite won
Cape Verde 0–0actual result Saudi Arabia
0.98–0.83model xG
Cape Verde 36%draw 36%Saudi Arabia 28%
Model favoured: Draw at 36%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-019.3% · 1/5.21-014.3% · 1/7.01-113.9% · 1/7.20-112.0% · 1/8.32-07.8% · 1/12.92-16.0% · 1/16.7
Group H Sat 27 Jun 01:00 ✓ Favourite won
Uruguay 0–1actual result Spain
0.47–1.69model xG
Uruguay 10%draw 26%Spain 65%
Model favoured: Spain at 65%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-118.2% · 1/5.50-215.6% · 1/6.40-013.8% · 1/7.21-19.9% · 1/10.10-38.8% · 1/11.31-26.9% · 1/14.4
Group I Fri 26 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Senegal 5–0actual result Iraq
1.78–0.77model xG
Senegal 59%draw 26%Iraq 15%
Model favoured: Senegal at 59%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-012.8% · 1/7.82-011.9% · 1/8.41-111.4% · 1/8.70-010.2% · 1/9.82-18.7% · 1/11.53-07.1% · 1/14.2
Group I Fri 26 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Norway 1–4actual result France
1.16–1.55model xG
Norway 28%draw 28%France 45%
Model favoured: France at 45%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.6% · 1/7.90-09.2% · 1/10.80-19.2% · 1/10.81-28.3% · 1/12.00-27.8% · 1/12.81-06.7% · 1/14.9
Group D Fri 26 Jun 03:00 ✗ Upset
Paraguay 0–0actual result Australia
0.94–1.20model xG
Paraguay 28%draw 32%Australia 40%
Model favoured: Australia at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-014.4% · 1/6.91-113.9% · 1/7.20-112.7% · 1/7.91-09.6% · 1/10.50-28.5% · 1/11.81-27.2% · 1/14.0
Group D Fri 26 Jun 03:00 ✗ Upset
Turkey 3–2actual result USA
1.20–1.34model xG
Turkey 32%draw 29%USA 39%
Model favoured: USA at 39%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.2% · 1/7.60-010.4% · 1/9.60-19.5% · 1/10.61-08.2% · 1/12.21-27.7% · 1/13.00-27.1% · 1/14.0
Group F Fri 26 Jun 00:00 ✓ Favourite won
Tunisia 1–3actual result Netherlands
0.61–2.81model xG
Tunisia 6%draw 14%Netherlands 80%
Model favoured: Netherlands at 80%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-212.6% · 1/8.00-311.2% · 1/8.90-19.1% · 1/11.00-48.1% · 1/12.31-27.2% · 1/13.91-16.6% · 1/15.1
Group F Fri 26 Jun 00:00 ✗ Upset
Japan 1–1actual result Sweden
1.83–1.13model xG
Japan 52%draw 25%Sweden 23%
Model favoured: Japan at 52%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-111.3% · 1/8.82-18.8% · 1/11.41-08.7% · 1/11.52-08.6% · 1/11.60-07.5% · 1/13.31-25.7% · 1/17.5
Group E Thu 25 Jun 21:00 ✗ Upset
Ecuador 2–1actual result Germany
0.86–1.34model xG
Ecuador 23%draw 31%Germany 46%
Model favoured: Germany at 46%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-013.6% · 1/7.31-113.4% · 1/7.50-113.4% · 1/7.50-29.8% · 1/10.21-08.2% · 1/12.21-27.7% · 1/13.0
Group E Thu 25 Jun 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
Curacao 0–2actual result Ivory Coast
0.65–2.02model xG
Curacao 11%draw 22%Ivory Coast 67%
Model favoured: Ivory Coast at 67%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-213.6% · 1/7.40-113.0% · 1/7.71-110.0% · 1/10.00-39.2% · 1/10.80-09.0% · 1/11.11-28.3% · 1/12.0
Group A Thu 25 Jun 02:00 ✗ Upset
South Africa 1–0actual result South Korea
0.78–1.47model xG
South Africa 19%draw 29%South Korea 51%
Model favoured: South Korea at 51%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-114.0% · 1/7.10-013.0% · 1/7.71-112.8% · 1/7.80-211.0% · 1/9.11-27.9% · 1/12.61-07.1% · 1/14.2
Group A Thu 25 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Czech Republic 0–3actual result Mexico
0.63–1.75model xG
Czech Republic 13%draw 26%Mexico 62%
Model favoured: Mexico at 62%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-115.0% · 1/6.70-213.5% · 1/7.40-011.7% · 1/8.61-110.9% · 1/9.20-38.1% · 1/12.31-28.0% · 1/12.5
Group C Wed 24 Jun 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Scotland 0–3actual result Brazil
0.75–1.48model xG
Scotland 18%draw 29%Brazil 52%
Model favoured: Brazil at 52%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-114.4% · 1/7.00-013.2% · 1/7.61-112.6% · 1/7.90-211.4% · 1/8.81-28.0% · 1/12.61-07.0% · 1/14.4
Group C Wed 24 Jun 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Morocco 4–2actual result Haiti
2.00–0.52model xG
Morocco 70%draw 22%Haiti 8%
Model favoured: Morocco at 70%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.3% · 1/6.52-015.3% · 1/6.50-010.4% · 1/9.63-010.1% · 1/9.91-19.0% · 1/11.12-17.5% · 1/13.3
Group B Wed 24 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Bosnia & Herzegovina 3–1actual result Qatar
1.46–0.82model xG
Bosnia & Herzegovina 50%draw 30%Qatar 20%
Model favoured: Bosnia & Herzegovina at 50%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-013.5% · 1/7.41-112.9% · 1/7.70-012.7% · 1/7.92-010.6% · 1/9.42-18.2% · 1/12.30-17.1% · 1/14.1
Group B Wed 24 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Switzerland 2–1actual result Canada
1.53–0.73model xG
Switzerland 54%draw 29%Canada 17%
Model favoured: Switzerland at 54%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-014.5% · 1/6.90-013.2% · 1/7.61-112.3% · 1/8.12-011.6% · 1/8.62-18.0% · 1/12.40-16.6% · 1/15.2
Group K Wed 24 Jun 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
Colombia 1–0actual result D.R. Congo
1.72–0.64model xG
Colombia 61%draw 26%D.R. Congo 13%
Model favoured: Colombia at 61%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.1% · 1/6.62-013.3% · 1/7.50-012.1% · 1/8.31-111.1% · 1/9.02-18.1% · 1/12.33-07.6% · 1/13.2
Group L Wed 24 Jun 00:00 ✓ Favourite won
Panama 0–1actual result Croatia
0.86–1.67model xG
Panama 18%draw 27%Croatia 54%
Model favoured: Croatia at 54%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.3% · 1/8.10-112.2% · 1/8.20-210.9% · 1/9.20-010.4% · 1/9.61-28.6% · 1/11.70-36.0% · 1/16.7
Group L Tue 23 Jun 21:00 ✗ Upset
England 0–0actual result Ghana
2.64–0.49model xG
England 80%draw 15%Ghana 5%
Model favoured: England at 80%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-014.7% · 1/6.83-012.2% · 1/8.21-011.6% · 1/8.64-08.2% · 1/12.22-16.8% · 1/14.71-16.4% · 1/15.6
Group K Tue 23 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Portugal 5–0actual result Uzbekistan
2.07–0.64model xG
Portugal 68%draw 22%Uzbekistan 10%
Model favoured: Portugal at 68%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-013.6% · 1/7.31-013.2% · 1/7.61-19.4% · 1/10.73-09.3% · 1/10.70-09.0% · 1/11.12-18.0% · 1/12.4
Group J Tue 23 Jun 04:00 ✓ Favourite won
Jordan 1–2actual result Algeria
1.00–1.38model xG
Jordan 26%draw 30%Algeria 44%
Model favoured: Algeria at 44%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.4% · 1/7.50-011.8% · 1/8.50-111.5% · 1/8.70-28.8% · 1/11.41-28.1% · 1/12.41-08.0% · 1/12.5
Group I Tue 23 Jun 01:00 ✓ Favourite won
Norway 3–2actual result Senegal
2.02–0.94model xG
Norway 60%draw 23%Senegal 17%
Model favoured: Norway at 60%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-110.5% · 1/9.52-010.3% · 1/9.71-09.8% · 1/10.22-18.8% · 1/11.30-07.4% · 1/13.53-06.9% · 1/14.4
Group I Mon 22 Jun 22:00 ✓ Favourite won
France 3–0actual result Iraq
2.92–0.44model xG
France 85%draw 12%Iraq 3%
Model favoured: France at 85%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-014.5% · 1/6.93-013.4% · 1/7.51-010.4% · 1/9.64-09.8% · 1/10.22-16.1% · 1/16.55-06.0% · 1/16.7
Group J Mon 22 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Argentina 2–0actual result Austria
2.02–0.54model xG
Argentina 70%draw 22%Austria 8%
Model favoured: Argentina at 70%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-015.0% · 1/6.71-014.8% · 1/6.80-010.0% · 1/10.03-010.0% · 1/10.01-19.1% · 1/10.92-17.6% · 1/13.1
Group G Mon 22 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
New Zealand 1–3actual result Egypt
0.88–1.40model xG
New Zealand 23%draw 30%Egypt 47%
Model favoured: Egypt at 47%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.4% · 1/7.50-012.8% · 1/7.80-112.8% · 1/7.80-29.8% · 1/10.21-27.8% · 1/12.91-07.7% · 1/13.0
Group H Sun 21 Jun 23:00 ✗ Upset
Uruguay 2–2actual result Cape Verde
1.22–0.65model xG
Uruguay 48%draw 33%Cape Verde 19%
Model favoured: Uruguay at 48%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-018.1% · 1/5.51-017.0% · 1/5.91-112.8% · 1/7.82-011.1% · 1/9.00-18.8% · 1/11.42-16.7% · 1/14.9
Group G Sun 21 Jun 20:00 ✗ Upset
Belgium 0–0actual result Iran
1.65–0.88model xG
Belgium 53%draw 27%Iran 19%
Model favoured: Belgium at 53%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.3% · 1/8.11-012.1% · 1/8.30-010.6% · 1/9.52-010.5% · 1/9.52-18.7% · 1/11.50-15.9% · 1/16.9
Group H Sun 21 Jun 17:00 ✓ Favourite won
Spain 4–0actual result Saudi Arabia
2.54–0.32model xG
Spain 83%draw 14%Saudi Arabia 3%
Model favoured: Spain at 83%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-017.6% · 1/5.71-014.5% · 1/6.93-014.4% · 1/6.94-09.3% · 1/10.80-07.5% · 1/13.32-15.5% · 1/18.2
Group F Sun 21 Jun 05:00 ✓ Favourite won
Tunisia 0–4actual result Japan
0.65–2.55model xG
Tunisia 8%draw 17%Japan 76%
Model favoured: Japan at 76%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-212.7% · 1/7.90-310.5% · 1/9.50-110.0% · 1/10.01-27.8% · 1/12.91-17.7% · 1/12.90-47.0% · 1/14.3
Group E Sun 21 Jun 01:00 ✗ Upset
Ecuador 0–0actual result Curacao
2.32–0.52model xG
Ecuador 75%draw 18%Curacao 7%
Model favoured: Ecuador at 75%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-015.0% · 1/6.71-013.1% · 1/7.63-011.5% · 1/8.70-07.9% · 1/12.71-17.8% · 1/12.92-17.4% · 1/13.6
Group E Sat 20 Jun 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
Germany 2–1actual result Ivory Coast
1.69–0.76model xG
Germany 57%draw 27%Ivory Coast 16%
Model favoured: Germany at 57%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-013.4% · 1/7.51-111.8% · 1/8.52-011.7% · 1/8.60-011.2% · 1/8.92-18.5% · 1/11.83-06.6% · 1/15.1
Group F Sat 20 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Netherlands 5–1actual result Sweden
2.01–1.06model xG
Netherlands 57%draw 24%Sweden 19%
Model favoured: Netherlands at 57%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-110.6% · 1/9.42-09.3% · 1/10.82-18.9% · 1/11.31-08.7% · 1/11.50-06.8% · 1/14.83-06.2% · 1/16.0
Group D Sat 20 Jun 04:00 ✗ Upset
Turkey 0–1actual result Paraguay
1.30–1.11model xG
Turkey 39%draw 30%Paraguay 31%
Model favoured: Turkey at 39%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.7% · 1/7.30-011.6% · 1/8.61-010.2% · 1/9.80-18.7% · 1/11.62-17.6% · 1/13.12-07.6% · 1/13.1
Group C Sat 20 Jun 01:30 ✓ Favourite won
Brazil 3–0actual result Haiti
2.35–0.46model xG
Brazil 77%draw 17%Haiti 6%
Model favoured: Brazil at 77%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-015.8% · 1/6.31-013.7% · 1/7.33-012.2% · 1/8.20-08.0% · 1/12.54-07.2% · 1/13.81-17.2% · 1/13.9
Group C Fri 19 Jun 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Scotland 0–1actual result Morocco
0.84–1.26model xG
Scotland 24%draw 32%Morocco 44%
Model favoured: Morocco at 44%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-014.9% · 1/6.70-113.9% · 1/7.21-113.5% · 1/7.40-29.6% · 1/10.41-08.9% · 1/11.31-27.4% · 1/13.5
Group D Fri 19 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
USA 2–0actual result Australia
1.30–1.23model xG
USA 37%draw 29%Australia 34%
Model favoured: USA at 37%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.4% · 1/7.50-010.5% · 1/9.51-08.9% · 1/11.20-18.7% · 1/11.42-17.4% · 1/13.61-27.0% · 1/14.2
Group A Fri 19 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Mexico 1–0actual result South Korea
1.69–0.79model xG
Mexico 56%draw 27%South Korea 17%
Model favoured: Mexico at 56%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-012.8% · 1/7.81-111.8% · 1/8.42-011.3% · 1/8.90-011.0% · 1/9.12-18.2% · 1/12.13-06.3% · 1/15.8
Group B Thu 18 Jun 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Canada 6–0actual result Qatar
1.73–0.74model xG
Canada 59%draw 26%Qatar 15%
Model favoured: Canada at 59%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-013.5% · 1/7.42-012.1% · 1/8.31-111.4% · 1/8.70-011.1% · 1/9.02-18.3% · 1/12.03-06.9% · 1/14.4
Group B Thu 18 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Switzerland 4–1actual result Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.70–0.62model xG
Switzerland 61%draw 26%Bosnia & Herzegovina 13%
Model favoured: Switzerland at 61%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.4% · 1/6.52-013.4% · 1/7.40-012.3% · 1/8.11-111.1% · 1/9.02-18.2% · 1/12.23-07.7% · 1/13.0
Group A Thu 18 Jun 17:00 ✗ Upset
Czech Republic 1–1actual result South Africa
1.29–0.93model xG
Czech Republic 43%draw 31%South Africa 26%
Model favoured: Czech Republic at 43%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.7% · 1/7.30-013.5% · 1/7.41-012.4% · 1/8.12-08.9% · 1/11.20-18.7% · 1/11.52-17.6% · 1/13.2
Group K Thu 18 Jun 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
Uzbekistan 1–3actual result Colombia
0.58–2.09model xG
Uzbekistan 9%draw 21%Colombia 70%
Model favoured: Colombia at 70%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-214.3% · 1/7.00-113.6% · 1/7.30-310.0% · 1/10.00-09.2% · 1/10.91-19.2% · 1/10.91-27.8% · 1/12.8
Group L Thu 18 Jun 00:00 ✗ Upset
Ghana 1–0actual result Panama
0.96–1.13model xG
Ghana 29%draw 33%Panama 38%
Model favoured: Panama at 38%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-015.0% · 1/6.71-114.1% · 1/7.10-112.4% · 1/8.01-010.2% · 1/9.80-27.9% · 1/12.71-26.8% · 1/14.7
Group L Wed 17 Jun 21:00 ✓ Favourite won
England 4–2actual result Croatia
1.94–0.86model xG
England 61%draw 24%Croatia 16%
Model favoured: England at 61%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-011.1% · 1/9.01-011.0% · 1/9.11-110.7% · 1/9.32-19.0% · 1/11.20-08.2% · 1/12.23-07.2% · 1/13.9
Group K Wed 17 Jun 18:00 ✗ Upset
Portugal 1–1actual result D.R. Congo
1.68–0.69model xG
Portugal 59%draw 27%D.R. Congo 14%
Model favoured: Portugal at 59%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-014.4% · 1/6.92-012.6% · 1/7.91-111.7% · 1/8.60-011.7% · 1/8.62-18.5% · 1/11.83-07.1% · 1/14.0
Group J Wed 17 Jun 05:00 ✓ Favourite won
Austria 3–1actual result Jordan
1.71–0.81model xG
Austria 56%draw 27%Jordan 17%
Model favoured: Austria at 56%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-012.6% · 1/8.01-111.9% · 1/8.42-011.3% · 1/8.80-010.4% · 1/9.62-18.8% · 1/11.43-06.5% · 1/15.4
Group J Wed 17 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Argentina 3–0actual result Algeria
2.47–0.44model xG
Argentina 80%draw 15%Algeria 5%
Model favoured: Argentina at 80%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-016.1% · 1/6.21-013.2% · 1/7.63-012.9% · 1/7.74-08.0% · 1/12.50-07.1% · 1/14.02-16.7% · 1/14.8
Group I Tue 16 Jun 23:00 ✓ Favourite won
Iraq 1–4actual result Norway
0.57–2.90model xG
Iraq 5%draw 13%Norway 82%
Model favoured: Norway at 82%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-212.8% · 1/7.80-312.0% · 1/8.40-18.8% · 1/11.30-48.8% · 1/11.31-27.0% · 1/14.31-36.5% · 1/15.4
Group I Tue 16 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
France 3–1actual result Senegal
2.01–0.71model xG
France 65%draw 23%Senegal 12%
Model favoured: France at 65%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-012.8% · 1/7.81-012.5% · 1/8.01-110.0% · 1/10.00-08.8% · 1/11.43-08.6% · 1/11.62-18.5% · 1/11.8
Group G Tue 16 Jun 02:00 ✗ Upset
Iran 2–2actual result New Zealand
1.67–1.07model xG
Iran 49%draw 27%New Zealand 24%
Model favoured: Iran at 49%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.3% · 1/8.11-09.7% · 1/10.30-08.9% · 1/11.32-18.8% · 1/11.32-08.8% · 1/11.40-15.9% · 1/17.1
Group H Mon 15 Jun 23:00 ✗ Upset
Saudi Arabia 1–1actual result Uruguay
0.62–1.39model xG
Saudi Arabia 16%draw 31%Uruguay 53%
Model favoured: Uruguay at 53%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-116.9% · 1/5.90-015.7% · 1/6.40-212.6% · 1/8.01-112.4% · 1/8.11-27.3% · 1/13.81-07.2% · 1/13.9
Group G Mon 15 Jun 20:00 ✗ Upset
Belgium 1–1actual result Egypt
1.36–0.73model xG
Belgium 50%draw 31%Egypt 19%
Model favoured: Belgium at 50%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-015.3% · 1/6.60-015.0% · 1/6.71-112.9% · 1/7.72-011.2% · 1/9.00-17.7% · 1/13.02-17.6% · 1/13.2
Group H Mon 15 Jun 17:00 ✗ Upset
Spain 0–0actual result Cape Verde
2.20–0.33model xG
Spain 79%draw 17%Cape Verde 4%
Model favoured: Spain at 79%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-018.3% · 1/5.51-017.1% · 1/5.93-013.4% · 1/7.50-09.9% · 1/10.14-07.4% · 1/13.51-16.4% · 1/15.7
Group F Mon 15 Jun 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
Sweden 5–1actual result Tunisia
2.30–0.97model xG
Sweden 65%draw 21%Tunisia 14%
Model favoured: Sweden at 65%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-09.9% · 1/10.11-19.4% · 1/10.72-18.9% · 1/11.21-08.2% · 1/12.23-07.4% · 1/13.53-16.8% · 1/14.7
Group E Mon 15 Jun 00:00 ✗ Upset
Ivory Coast 1–0actual result Ecuador
0.67–0.97model xG
Ivory Coast 23%draw 37%Ecuador 40%
Model favoured: Ecuador at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-022.0% · 1/4.50-116.9% · 1/5.91-113.3% · 1/7.51-011.5% · 1/8.70-28.9% · 1/11.21-25.7% · 1/17.5
Group F Sun 14 Jun 21:00 ✗ Upset
Netherlands 2–2actual result Japan
1.35–1.17model xG
Netherlands 39%draw 30%Japan 31%
Model favoured: Netherlands at 39%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.4% · 1/7.40-010.6% · 1/9.41-09.5% · 1/10.60-18.1% · 1/12.42-17.9% · 1/12.72-07.4% · 1/13.6
Group E Sun 14 Jun 18:00 ✓ Favourite won
Germany 7–1actual result Curacao
4.01–0.58model xG
Germany 91%draw 7%Curacao 2%
Model favoured: Germany at 91%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
3-010.6% · 1/9.54-010.4% · 1/9.72-08.5% · 1/11.85-08.4% · 1/11.93-15.8% · 1/17.26-05.8% · 1/17.3
Group D Sun 14 Jun 05:00 ✓ Favourite won
Australia 2–0actual result Turkey
1.17–1.09model xG
Australia 36%draw 32%Turkey 32%
Model favoured: Australia at 36%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.9% · 1/7.20-013.1% · 1/7.61-010.9% · 1/9.20-19.9% · 1/10.12-17.2% · 1/13.92-07.2% · 1/14.0
Group C Sun 14 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
Haiti 0–1actual result Scotland
0.67–1.71model xG
Haiti 14%draw 26%Scotland 60%
Model favoured: Scotland at 60%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-114.5% · 1/6.90-213.0% · 1/7.70-011.5% · 1/8.71-111.4% · 1/8.81-28.3% · 1/12.10-37.6% · 1/13.2
Group C Sat 13 Jun 23:00 ✗ Upset
Brazil 1–1actual result Morocco
1.15–0.86model xG
Brazil 40%draw 34%Morocco 26%
Model favoured: Brazil at 40%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-016.2% · 1/6.21-114.0% · 1/7.21-013.6% · 1/7.30-110.3% · 1/9.72-08.6% · 1/11.72-16.9% · 1/14.5
Group B Sat 13 Jun 20:00 ✗ Upset
Qatar 1–1actual result Switzerland
0.48–2.43model xG
Qatar 6%draw 16%Switzerland 78%
Model favoured: Switzerland at 78%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
0-215.3% · 1/6.50-112.7% · 1/7.90-312.3% · 1/8.10-47.6% · 1/13.10-07.2% · 1/13.91-17.1% · 1/14.0
Group D Sat 13 Jun 02:00 ✓ Favourite won
USA 4–1actual result Paraguay
1.55–1.18model xG
USA 44%draw 28%Paraguay 28%
Model favoured: USA at 44%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-112.6% · 1/7.91-09.1% · 1/11.00-09.0% · 1/11.12-18.4% · 1/11.92-07.8% · 1/12.80-16.5% · 1/15.3
Group B Fri 12 Jun 20:00 ✗ Upset
Canada 1–1actual result Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.35–0.93model xG
Canada 45%draw 31%Bosnia & Herzegovina 25%
Model favoured: Canada at 45%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.5% · 1/7.40-012.9% · 1/7.71-012.3% · 1/8.12-09.2% · 1/10.90-18.1% · 1/12.32-17.9% · 1/12.7
Group A Fri 12 Jun 03:00 ✓ Favourite won
South Korea 2–1actual result Czech Republic
1.37–1.03model xG
South Korea 43%draw 30%Czech Republic 27%
Model favoured: South Korea at 43%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
1-113.6% · 1/7.40-011.6% · 1/8.71-011.0% · 1/9.12-08.5% · 1/11.72-18.1% · 1/12.40-18.0% · 1/12.5
Group A Thu 11 Jun 20:00 ✓ Favourite won
Mexico 2–0actual result South Africa
2.11–0.55model xG
Mexico 71%draw 21%South Africa 8%
Model favoured: Mexico at 71%
predicted scorelines · gold = actual result · teal = 80% coverage set
2-015.0% · 1/6.71-014.3% · 1/7.03-010.4% · 1/9.60-09.3% · 1/10.81-18.7% · 1/11.52-17.6% · 1/13.2