La Liga Forecasts

9 upcoming fixtures · updated 2026-09-10 13:42

La Liga

MatchHomeDrawAwayTop scoreO2.5BTTS
Sevilla v Valencia
Fri 11 Sep · 20:00
47%28%25%1‑0
14%
40%45%
Santander v Alaves
Sat 12 Sep · 13:00
44%26%31%1‑1
12%
50%54%
Osasuna v Espanol
Sat 12 Sep · 15:15
42%28%31%1‑1
13%
43%48%
Ath Bilbao v Elche
Sat 12 Sep · 17:30
64%22%14%1‑0
14%
48%44%
Real Madrid v Vallecano
Sat 12 Sep · 20:00
81%13%6%2‑0
13%
65%44%
Celta v Malaga
Sun 13 Sep · 13:00
68%19%13%2‑0
12%
56%48%
Levante v Barcelona
Sun 13 Sep · 15:15
10%15%75%0‑2
10%
68%54%
Getafe v La Coruna
Sun 13 Sep · 17:30
48%28%23%1‑0
15%
37%42%
Sociedad v Ath Madrid
Sun 13 Sep · 20:00
24%25%51%1‑1
12%
49%52%
About these forecasts. A Dixon-Coles Poisson goal model fitted on four seasons of La Liga results, refitted before each round. Each country is fitted with its second division included, so promoted and relegated clubs keep their history, and the weight on the other division falls away as a season accumulates its own data. Team strength is anchored partly on squad market value, which is what lets the model see a promoted side that has just been rebuilt.
Model probabilities, published for information — not betting advice. Tested against five seasons of Betfair closing prices over 285,824 settled selections, this model shows no edge in match result, over/under, both-teams-to-score or correct score. Flat-stake betting on its disagreements with the market broke even at best. It is published as a calibrated forecast, not a tip.