Serie A Forecasts

13 upcoming fixtures · updated 2026-10-25 08:11

Serie A

MatchHomeDrawAwayTop scoreO2.5BTTS
Inter v Fiorentina
Sun 25 Oct · 11:30
64%21%15%2‑0
11%
55%51%
Atalanta v Frosinone
Sun 25 Oct · 14:00
73%16%11%2‑0
10%
68%56%
Genoa v Venezia
Sun 25 Oct · 14:00
48%28%24%1‑0
13%
41%46%
Lecce v Juventus
Sun 25 Oct · 17:00
9%21%70%0‑1
16%
44%36%
Udinese v Milan
Sun 25 Oct · 19:45
19%25%56%0‑1
12%
49%50%
Sassuolo v Lazio
Tue 27 Oct · 17:30
30%27%43%1‑1
13%
49%54%
Roma v Cagliari
Tue 27 Oct · 19:45
67%21%12%2‑0
14%
49%43%
Torino v Como
Tue 27 Oct · 19:45
13%23%64%0‑1
14%
46%42%
Milan v Bologna
Wed 28 Oct · 17:30
50%27%23%1‑1
13%
46%49%
Parma v Udinese
Wed 28 Oct · 17:30
39%30%31%1‑1
14%
38%45%
Venezia v Inter
Wed 28 Oct · 17:30
8%16%75%0‑2
13%
60%46%
Genoa v Juventus
Wed 28 Oct · 19:45
19%28%53%0‑1
16%
37%40%
Monza v Napoli
Wed 28 Oct · 19:45
9%18%72%0‑2
14%
55%44%
About these forecasts. A Dixon-Coles Poisson goal model fitted on four seasons of Serie A results, refitted before each round. Each country is fitted with its second division included, so promoted and relegated clubs keep their history, and the weight on the other division falls away as a season accumulates its own data. Team strength is anchored partly on squad market value, which is what lets the model see a promoted side that has just been rebuilt.
Model probabilities, published for information — not betting advice. Tested against five seasons of Betfair closing prices over 285,824 settled selections, this model shows no edge in match result, over/under, both-teams-to-score or correct score. Flat-stake betting on its disagreements with the market broke even at best. It is published as a calibrated forecast, not a tip.