Ligue 1 Forecasts

9 upcoming fixtures · updated 2026-09-10 13:44

Ligue 1

MatchHomeDrawAwayTop scoreO2.5BTTS
Rennes v Marseille
Fri 11 Sep · 19:45
44%24%32%1‑1
11%
59%61%
Strasbourg v Monaco
Sat 12 Sep · 16:15
43%24%33%1‑1
11%
61%63%
Auxerre v Nice
Sat 12 Sep · 19:45
40%28%32%1‑1
13%
45%51%
Le Havre v Angers
Sat 12 Sep · 19:45
41%31%28%1‑0
14%
33%41%
Lorient v Toulouse
Sat 12 Sep · 19:45
33%28%40%1‑1
13%
45%51%
Paris FC v Lyon
Sat 12 Sep · 19:45
39%26%36%1‑1
12%
54%57%
Lille v Troyes
Sun 13 Sep · 14:00
82%13%5%2‑0
15%
60%38%
Le Mans v Lens
Sun 13 Sep · 16:15
19%26%55%0‑1
14%
44%46%
Brest v Paris SG
Sun 13 Sep · 19:45
11%16%73%0‑2
11%
66%54%
About these forecasts. A Dixon-Coles Poisson goal model fitted on four seasons of Ligue 1 results, refitted before each round. Each country is fitted with its second division included, so promoted and relegated clubs keep their history, and the weight on the other division falls away as a season accumulates its own data. Team strength is anchored partly on squad market value, which is what lets the model see a promoted side that has just been rebuilt.
Model probabilities, published for information — not betting advice. Tested against five seasons of Betfair closing prices over 285,824 settled selections, this model shows no edge in match result, over/under, both-teams-to-score or correct score. Flat-stake betting on its disagreements with the market broke even at best. It is published as a calibrated forecast, not a tip.