How cup games are modelled. These are probabilities for the
90 minutes only; extra time and penalties are excluded. EFL Cup ties use the
English model retrained on the latest results from the top five tiers. Champions
League ties use four seasons of European results to link club strength between
countries, plus the latest domestic results from England, Spain, Germany, Italy
and France. Home advantage is retained because these are not neutral-site fixtures.
Model probabilities, published for information — not betting
advice. Cup rotation and team selection create more uncertainty than a normal
league fixture. Champions League forecasts are experimental and have not yet
passed a separate calibration backtest. Recent domestic form is unavailable
for clubs outside the five covered countries.