How cup games are modelled. These are probabilities for the
90 minutes only; extra time and penalties are excluded. EFL Cup ties use the
English model retrained on the latest results from the top five tiers. Champions
League and Europa League ties use four seasons of European results -- all three
UEFA competitions including their qualifying rounds -- to link club strength
between countries, plus league results from England, Spain, Germany, Italy,
France and eleven further European leagues. Each league is given its own
scoring level, so a club is measured against its own division first and the gap
between divisions is estimated from the European ties that cross it, rather
than every club being assumed average until proven otherwise. Home advantage is retained because these are not neutral-site fixtures.
Model probabilities, published for information — not betting
advice. Cup rotation and team selection create more uncertainty than a normal
league fixture. Champions League and Europa League forecasts are experimental
and have not yet passed a separate calibration backtest. Recent domestic form is unavailable
for clubs outside the five covered countries.