About these forecasts. A Dixon-Coles Poisson goal model fitted on four
seasons of Bundesliga results, refitted before each round. Each country is fitted with its
second division included, so promoted and relegated clubs keep their history, and the
weight on the other division falls away as a season accumulates its own data. Team
strength is anchored partly on squad market value, which is what lets the model see a
promoted side that has just been rebuilt.
Model probabilities, published for information — not betting advice.
Tested against five seasons of Betfair closing prices over 285,824 settled selections,
this model shows no edge in match result, over/under, both-teams-to-score or
correct score. Flat-stake betting on its disagreements with the market broke even at
best. It is published as a calibrated forecast, not a tip.